Luke Gromen: Gold Is Replacing Treasuries, Not Just Hedging Them
Gold was the top US export - beating oil, jet engines, and pharmaceuticals - for six of the last eight months. Almost nobody knows what that means.
The new Fed Chair is trapped. Kevin Warsh cannot hike without triggering foreign Treasury selling, cannot cut without fanning inflation. The debt math leaves one exit - weak dollar, low rates, money printing - all bullish for gold.
China cut the Triffin knot. Fifteen years of offshore yuan clearing banks in every gold hub route trade partners’ surplus yuan into physical gold - a structural bid anchored at the central bank level, not retail.
$36,000-$38,000 gold zeroes out China’s entire 2025 trade surplus. At $4,000 today, that is a ~9x discount to trade-flow fair value.
Gold overtook Treasuries in global FX reserves in 2025. Gromen sees it passing the dollar’s share by 2028-2029 - inside the current presidential term.
Luke Gromen (founder of FFTT) is one of the sharpest voices on fiscal dominance. He spoke with Dominic Frisby, who is personally long gold. The book is not hidden, so stress-test the analysis.
The Street trades gold as a fear hedge - a call option on inflation and crisis. Gromen’s claim is that it has quietly become plumbing.
This breakdown is for paid subscribers. Below: the exact mechanism that breaks any Fed tightening cycle, the 15-year yuan-gold system China built to sidestep Triffin’s dilemma, and the two geopolitical scenarios Gromen says would make him sell gold. Join to get full access.
