Tarek Mansour - founder of Kalshi: Perpetuals, the CME Lawsuit, and the Data Nobody Has

Jul 05, 2026

∙ Paid

Kalshi crypto grew 25X in 2026. CME Group sued the CFTC to block the perpetuals product driving that growth.
80%+ of Kalshi’s active users never trade - they read prediction probabilities as a more accurate news feed than social media or expert consensus.
Kalshi’s AI data is the sleeper. The forward-looking, outcome-tagged dataset is the only one of its kind at scale. AI labs are currently getting it free. That is probably not permanent.
The Kansas forecaster. Kalshi’s best inflation forecaster is a random person in Kansas. The incumbents’ edge does not exist in prediction markets.

This breakdown is for paid subscribers. Below: the CME lawsuit timeline and what an injunction means for the 25X growth driver, the AI data monetization angle, and why the Kansas forecaster signal changes how you think about institutional edge in prediction markets. Join to get full access.

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